Overview
Across the 2010 U.S. Census hiring program and Stockholm Jobs, this series asks why temporary public work leaves lasting employment effects for some people but benefit shifts or weaker outcomes for others. It separates counterfactual employment, wages, benefits, health indicators, and operating costs, then examines how screening, workplace contact, selection, duration, and exit routes shape the bridge. The evidence is conditional: Census gains are local to applicants near the score-70 margin, while Swedish estimates rely on observed-history weighting and leave mechanisms partly unresolved.
Learning outcomes
- A temporary public job can leave a lasting employment trace when it changes a worker’s credible next opportunity, not merely short-term income.
- The largest Census employment effect was local to applicants near the score-70 hiring margin, not a universal result for all applicants.
- Stockholm regular-workplace programs improved later employment relative to weighted controls, while Stockholm hosts reduced employment despite shifting more participants into UI.
- Employment, earnings, benefits, health indicators, public output, and delivery costs are separate ledgers; movement in one cannot stand in for success in all.
- Screening, experience, employer contact, and exit routes are plausible mechanisms, but the studies do not cleanly identify one cause of the lasting effects.
Keywords
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PlansFAQ
Why can a temporary public job affect employment years later?
It can change a worker’s credible next opportunity through a recent work record, screening signal, experience, employer contact, or a stable exit route, although the studies do not isolate every mechanism.
Did the Census job raise wages or mainly employment?
For applicants near score 70, it mainly raised the chance of having reported employment, not the wage earned conditional on working; the lasting total-income gain came from more people working.
Why did Stockholm Jobs produce different employment effects?
The contrast is consistent with regular workplaces offering stronger employer and sector connections than the program-created host site, but the observational design cannot isolate that mechanism.
Can lower social assistance prove a public job succeeded?
No. Lower social-assistance receipt can reflect employment, a shift into unemployment insurance, or both, so it cannot by itself prove labor-market success.